Independents Hall, Episode 2

363 teams play Division I men's basketball. 361 belong to conferences. These are the stories of the other two.

For the first time since the 2014-15 season, we have teams playing Division I basketball that are unaffiliated with conferences. This phenomenon, long associated with teams too new to find conferences immediately or geographic isolates, has since become sort of an unknown entity given the intense need of conference affiliation to secure any sort of tournament invite in the modern era. This is not football - this is not a case where the Notre Dames of the world can compete at a higher standalone level. This is a case of two schools and the stories around them, and our year following them. 

A couple of weeks ago, I introduced you to our two contenders. One, Hartford, the team dropping to non-scholarship play at the behest of their university Board of Regents, while the other, Chicago State, found itself an island alone at the end of last season and was forced to traverse the wilds while they search for a home anew. 

Since we’ve talked last, a lot has happened! Despite neither of these teams making any sort of headlines, we’ve still got plenty of interesting things to talk about. 

Chicago State

November 14 - def. IUPUI, 68-58

November 16 - def. Valparaiso, 87-74

November 19 - def. by Kent State, 59-88

November 21 - def. by Marshall, 70-82

November 23 - def. by Cleveland State, 63-77

In their 5 games since we last spoke, the Cougars have gone 2-3, including two home wins! One is against IUPUI, who are admittedly the worst team in Division I from a statistical standpoint. The other, however, came against a Valparaiso team that, despite their struggles, is still a top-300 KenPom team. That might not sound like much, but when you yourself haven’t been above that mark in nearly a decade (2014, under Tracy Dildy), that’s pretty big news! The latter game was a complete domination - the Cougars led 49-24 at half. Beautiful to see.

Their next three games were not expected to go as well, and as predicted, the Cougars came away 0-3. Still! Outside of the Kent State game, Chicago State played tight to both Marshall and Cleveland State for long portions of the game, and were only put away later on. Those are two decent opponents, a strong bellwether for where this team might be able to get, and though they’re not winning those games yet, it’s a testament that the Cougars are not to be underestimated.

As it stands, Chicago State is currently 2-5, with three games over the next two weeks. They’ve floated up to 356th in KenPom’s ratings from a preseason rank of 359th. Moving in the right direction! More notably, their AdjEM has swung more than 2 points in their favor - the 79th best mark this year. 

Here’s the upcoming schedule, with KenPom’s predicted win percentage and score for those three games. 

Upcoming

November 26 - @ Marquette (1%, 60-88)

December 1 - @ Bethune-Cookman (24%, 67-75)

December 4 - vs. Southern Indiana (21%, 70-79)

Though Marquette is the comfortable favorite in the first matchup, two mildly winnable games approach away to Bethune-Cookman and hosting first-year Division I team Southern Indiana. If my math is correct, there’s a roughly 40% chance that the Cougars snag a win in at least one of those games - though the odds of winning all three drop to an infinitesimal number. 

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Hartford

November 12 - def. by St. Francis PA, 53-77

November 17 - def. by Boston University, 66-102

November 19 - def. Houghton, 98-32

November 22 - def. FDU-Florham, 82-45

November 25 - def. by Penn, 55-75

Through Hartford’s five-game stretch, the Hawks also went 2-3 - symmetry! However, Hartford has yet to score a win against Division I opposition - while the win against Houghton to the tune of 66 points looks really nice on the surface, and while that team is their future competition in Division III, that’s… not going to count for much this year. A vicious whooping at the hands of Boston University lowlights the remainder of the schedule, though the game against Penn wasn’t awful. Per Bart Torvik’s game score metric, the Hawks haven’t risen above 9 yet - on a scale that goes to 100. For context, Chicago State’s best this year is an 81 against Valparaiso, and 4 of their 7 games are above 10. Even IUPUI managed a 16 against New Orleans. 

Despite all that, the Hawks have risen to 3-4 - almost .500! Please ignore the opposition those wins have come against because it Does Not Matter for this. 

Upcoming

November 26 - v. Delaware (11%, 64-78)

November 27 - v. Colgate (5%, 63-82)

November 30 - vs. Fairleigh Dickinson (53%, 75-74)

December 4 - vs. Brown (31%, 68-73)

December 6 - @ St. Francis NY (34%, 67-71) 

For better or for worse, Hartford leaves behind the lower-division opposition in this next set of 5 games. They trade it for tough games against Delaware and Colgate, two winnable games in Fairleigh Dickinson (they’re even favored!) and St. Francis NY, and a tossup of sorts against Brown. It should be a very good slate for testing the Hawks’ relative strength to the field - if they can come away with a Division I win, all the better.

That’s all I’ve got! Our beloved Independents are a combined 5-9. With eight games coming up in the next two weeks, we’ll have to see if they can somehow cross that ten-win threshold - or at the very least, add to the total they currently have.