March Badness 2023
Let's flip the standard and see what happens
Two years ago, I (David) had a simply wonderful idea, as I’m oft wont to do: what if there was a NCAA tournament equivalent for the worst teams, a way for the bottom of the barrel to extend their seasons and continue to compete for something, whatever that might be.
The original principle behind the idea was to acknowledge the cool stories buried under a lot of losses and poor performances - because, while every game has value, let’s be honest. A game between Florida A&M and Lamar isn’t going to get nearly the same traction as a game between Texas and UCLA, but those same riches of storylines and worthwhile pursuits exist all the same.
For more details on the genesis of this idea and what something like this may look like, you can absolutely reference last year’s March Badness post:
The Bracket
Here’s how we picked the bracket: think of everything the Selection Committee takes into account for the NCAA Tournament and flip it upside down. Like them, we awarded an autobid to all 32 Division I conferences, but instead of giving them to the conference tournament champions, we gave them to the teams that finished in last place. Next, we bestowed 36 at-large bids. While the Selection Committee looked for the best résumés and metrics in determining their field, we - naturally - looked for the worst. The lower you are in NET and KenPom, the higher your seed here. Losing to a non-D1 team could raise you a seed line or two, while beating a top-100 team could drop you just as much. In addition, you’ll notice that we followed all of the other NCAA bracketing rules; rematches were avoided in the early rounds, high seeds from the same conference are not in the same region, and so on.
Finally, to make sure we were getting the worst of the worst, we laid down a few more ground rules.
First, we removed every team still transitioning from a lower division. Merrimack should be allowed into the NCAA Tournament, that’s not up for debate, but if they’re not allowed to own their successes on the national stage, we likewise won’t punish teams for making the jump and faltering during the adjustment period. That eliminated the following teams who would have otherwise made the field:
Lindenwood
Stonehill (also eliminated under other rules)
Utah Tech (WAC autobid)
Next, we removed every team that had a winning record in conference play. Some teams may have been on the at-large list via metrics, but they beat their peers more than they didn’t. They’ve already proven they don’t belong here. That eliminated these would-be at-large teams:
Saint Francis (PA) (9-7 NEC)
Alabama A&M (10-8 SWAC)
Jackson State (12-6 SWAC)
Thirdly, we decided that no more than half of any given conference could be selected for this tournament. This is mostly relevant in the case of the Northeast Conference, who almost landed their entire field in this tournament. Ignoring the teams who were already eliminated for other reasons, that got rid of these at-large hopefuls:
North Carolina A&T (seventh bid in 13-team CAA)
Wagner (fifth bid in nine-team NEC)
Last but not least, if you made it to the title game of your conference tournament - if you were just one win away from the real Big Dance - you played yourself out of March Badness. Here, we said goodbye to Marist, who would have been the MAAC’s autobid if not for a Cinderella run to the conference tournament final.
A lot of these rules are inversions on those applied in the case of A Better Bracket - a piece you can find below.
The Field
Now, as with the actual tournament, we have an Early Eight - so we should get started with that. Much like the actual tournament itself, the 16-seed play-in teams are the weakest autobids, while the 14-seed play-ins are the weakest at-large selections.
The Early Eight
Wyoming and Minnesota tangle in one of the 16-seed matchups - the Cowboys, the Mountain West bidwinner, while Minnesota comfortably took home the Big Ten bid. The other 16-seed matchup is Oklahoma, bottom of the Big 12, against LSU, who slid home at the tail end of the SEC.
Our first matchup between the 14-seed at-larges comes between Denver and Binghamton - while both teams exceeded expectations, they still found themselves in the proverbial basements relative to the entirety of Division I. The same goes for the other matchup, between Bowling Green and Coastal Carolina, both of whom just barely slid into the field.
LIU Region
Our upper-left bracket is the LIU region, so called because of the top overall seed in the bracket - NEC autobid LIU, who were metrically the worst team in Division I in pretty much every single metric of note. This is an impressive achievement given it means they were worse than Hartford, a team literally dropping to non-scholarship athletics after this year. LIU will get the LSU/Oklahoma play-in winner. Paired with them are 8-seed South Carolina State and 9-seed Columbia, the autobid winners of the MEAC and Ivy, respectively, and two longtime friends of the Badness.
Our next foursome includes two teams from the same conference, as the CAA brings us 4-seed Hampton and 5-seed Elon. They’ll get, in turn, the 13- and 12-seeds - Central Michigan and ACC autobid Louisville, respectively. What a miserable year to be a Cardinals fan.
Then, 6-seed McNeese and 11-seed The Citadel join from the Southland and SoCon in a very south-oriented matchup to take on either 3-seed Big South bidwinner Presbyterian or the winner of the Bowling Green/Coastal Carolina play-in winner.
The last pod of the LIU Region includes New Orleans and AAC bottom-dweller Tulsa in the 7-10 game, with a SWAC vs. WAC autobid battle in the 2-15 game as Badness stalwart Mississippi Valley State takes on UTRGV.
Delaware State Region
The bottom left region is hosted by Delaware State, the only team to carry over hosting duties from last year. For their efforts, they’ve been treated to a date with 16-seed Big East bidwinner Georgetown, who took their conference-mates in Coppin State to overtime. Should be a blast! The 8-9 pairing in their pod is Loyola (MD) and another CAA team in Stony Brook.
Next up, it’s Central Connecticut of the NEC up against the CAA’s Northeastern in the 5-12, while the 4-13 consists of the SWAC’s Alabama State and Big West autobid Cal Poly.
Our following pod has Holy Cross-CSUN in the 6-11 matchup in what’s likely the furthest distance between two teams playing in the entire tournament. They’ll be meeting the winner of the 3-14 game between Evansville and Idaho, autobid winners of the MVC and Big Sky, respectively.
Our final pod in the DSU Region sees a 7-10 game between America East autobid Albany and Patriot autobid Bucknell in some classic Northeast Hate. The 2-15 game opposite them involves last year’s top overall seed in IUPUI and the A-10’s newest and worst member in Loyola Chicago.
Hartford Region
Our top seed in the upper right bracket is independent Hartford, the program that, as mentioned, is ending scholarship athletics at the close of this year and embarking on a transition to Division III. It’s an incredibly sad story. They get 16-seed Pepperdine, bottom of the WCC, in their tournament opener. Their paired 8-9 game has Sacred Heart, one of a handful of NEC teams in the tournament, going up against international darlings Saint Peter’s, winners of the MAAC autobid as they rebuild from the magical run they had in March Madness last year.
A very metropolitan pod coalesces with NJIT and Manhattan fighting in the 5-12 game, while St. Francis Brooklyn gets Emoni Bates and Eastern Michigan in the 4-13 draw.
Moving down the bracket, the 6-11 match has CAA autobid Monmouth going up against recent ASUN transfer Central Arkansas for a chance at recently rebranded 3-seed HCU or 14-seed Sun Belt autobid Georgia State, another team that dropped from Madness into Badness.
OVC bidwinner Austin Peay sits in the 7 slot, taking on a Coppin State team that fell back into Badness as a 10-seed after playing their way out of it last year. They’ll compete for the honor of a chance at 2-seed Florida A&M, from the SWAC, or the 15-seed in UTSA, C-USA’s bidwinner in their final season in the conference.
Green Bay Region
Our fourth and final region is the Green Bay Region, hosted by the Horizon league bidwinner, the Phoenix themselves. For their trouble, they get the Minnesota-Wyoming winner from the Early Eight. In their pod, they also have Summit autobid Omaha facing the OVC’s Little Rock in the 8-9 matchup.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Charleston Southern duel in our 5-12 game, while the 4-13 matchup sees Bethune-Cookman and William & Mary meet, both games part of a foursome full of March Badness stalwarts.
UIW takes on Kansas City in the 6-11 duel, while SoCon autobid VMI gets the Binghamton/Denver winner in the 3-14 counterpart in a matchup that sees a lot of returning friends to Badness.
Our last pod of the night gives us Western Michigan and OVC autobid Eastern Illinois in the 7-10 pairing - a win over Iowa dropped the Panthers eight seed lines, one of the largest falls year-over-year. The winner of that game will get the winner of the 2-15 matchup between Southland bidwinner Lamar and Pac-12 bidwinner California - both teams that routinely make appearances in the field.
That’s the bracket! We did compile some brief insights as far as year-over-year numbers:
40 teams (58.8%) that earned a bid to last year’s tournament earned a bid to this year’s tournament.
2 teams (2.9%) that earned a bid to last year’s March Badness tournament earned a bid to March Madness this year.
3 teams (4.4%) that earned a bid to last year’s March Madness tournament earned a bid to March Badness this year.
Repeat Offenders (2022 seed → 2023 seed)
IUPUI (1 → 2)
Delaware State (1 → 1)
Lamar (1 → 2)
Mississippi Valley State (1 → 2)
Eastern Illinois (2 → 10)
Arkansas-Pine Bluff (2 → 5)
Columbia (2 → 9)
UIW (3 → 6)
Charleston Southern (3 → 12)
Omaha (4 → 8)
Central Connecticut (4 → 5)
Green Bay (4 → 1)
Holy Cross (4 → 6)
William & Mary (5 → 13)
HCU (6 → 3)
Bucknell (6 → 10)
NJIT (7 → 5)
Western Michigan (7 → 7)
Evansville (7 → 3)
CSUN (7 → 11)
UTSA (8 → 15)
Sacred Heart (9 → 8)
Hampton (9 → 4)
Alabama State (9 → 4)
McNeese (10 → 6)
UTRGV (10 → 15)
Denver (10 → 14 play-in)
St. Francis Brooklyn (11 → 4)
Idaho (11 → 14)
Central Michigan (11 → 13)
Cal Poly (12 → 13)
Central Arkansas (12 → 11)
Eastern Michigan (13 → 13)
SC State (13 play-in → 8)
Binghamton (13 play-in → 14 play-in)
Little Rock (14 → 9)
Pepperdine (14 → 16)
Northeastern (15 → 12)
Georgetown (16 → 16)
Minnesota (16 → 16)
Badness to Madness
Fairleigh Dickinson (Badness 3 to Madness 16 play-in)
West Virginia (Badness 16 play-in to Madness 9)
Madness to Badness
Loyola Chicago (Madness 10 to Badness 15)
Saint Peter’s (Madness 15 to Badness 9)
Georgia State (Madness 16 to Badness 14)
Hope you enjoyed this piece! As always, we enjoy focusing on the low majors (wink wink nudge nudge) and any opportunity to do that is one David’ll jump at.