Skarmory's Bubble Watch
College basketball content on a college basketball blog: what a concept
Hi, I’m Skarmory! I’m a self-proclaimed college basketball sicko and Duke fan, above average bracketologist on bracketmatrix last year (better than Lunardi!), and friend of The Low Major. I’ve done a bubble watch most years since 2018–19, and this year The Low Major has graciously offered me a guest feature to post it here.
This post will be continuously updated throughout the season and pinned on the home page—each section will be marked with the date it was last updated on. Data is taken from warrennolan.com and bracketologists.com, with bracketmatrix.com often being referenced as the bracketologist consensus. Also, for clarification’s sake, non-Division I games are not counted in the records as they are not factored into NET.
The bid stealers have attacked, and the bubble has been thrown into chaos. I have a lot of typing to do tonight… with probably one hand… sigh wish me luck. Mar. 16, 11:51 PM
Some sections are written before the Oregon and NC State bid-steals, so if a section reads like there’s more room for a team than their should be, it probably is. I don’t have enough time to fix all of it. Mar. 17, 2:34 PM
All sections should be updated. Enjoy the selection show! Mar. 17, 5:40 PM
ACC
Locks: North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, NC State
Should be in: N/A
Work left to do: Pittsburgh, Virginia
NC State went on a miraculous run in the ACC tournament, winning five games in five days to steal an NCAA tournament bid. Even with that, we still may end up with just four ACC teams in the field because of the other bid stealers. Pitt and Virginia will be sweating it out during the selection show. Mar. 17
Locks
North Carolina — Last updated: Mar. 17
27–7 (17–3 ACC), NET 8, KP 9, SOR 5, 9–3 Q1, 7–4 Q2
Duke — Last updated: Mar. 17
24–8 (15–5 ACC), NET 10, KP 8, SOR 15, 5–4 Q1, 6–4 Q2
Clemson — Last updated: Mar. 17
21–11 (11–9 ACC), NET 35, KP 35, SOR 34, 5–5 Q1, 5–5 Q2, 1 Q3 loss
NC State (autobid) — Last updated: Mar. 17
22–14 (9–11 ACC), NET 63, KP 58, SOR 63, 3–8 Q1, 6–5 Q2, 1 Q3 loss
Work left to do
Pittsburgh — Last updated: Mar. 17
22–11 (12–8 ACC), NET 40, KP 40, SOR 48, 4–6 Q1, 5–3 Q2, 2 Q3 losses
Is an ACC quarterfinal win over Wake enough for Pitt? Their metrics have started to look pretty good, with their predictive metric average being in the 30s, and their resume average being around 50th. Add on their NC State wins both moving up a quadrant, and their quadrant records are also starting to look satisfactory for a tourney bid. The questions are whether their bottom-20 non-con SOS is too much to overcome, and whether the significant rise they’ve made since the conference tournaments started is valued highly enough to put them in the field. We’ll see on Sunday.
Virginia — Last updated: Mar. 17
23–10 (13–7 ACC), NET 54, KP 68, SOR 30, 2–7 Q1, 8–3 Q2
Virginia had to go to OT against both Boston College and NC State in their two ACC tournament games, and they didn’t survive the latter. Those results don’t help their bubbly profile, as they’re still entirely reliant on resume due to their predictive metrics hanging around 60th (as it turns out, all of your regular season losses being blowouts does not help your predictives), and going .500 in two Q2 games isn’t going to help their resume. They do remain top-40 in KPI and top-30 in SOR, but they have just two Q1 wins (@ Clemson being Q1-A) and now four Q2 losses. The question on Sunday will be whether their resume is strong enough to overcome their weak predictive metrics, especially with there being a couple less bids for them to grab.
Big 12
Locks: Houston, Iowa State, BYU, Baylor, Kansas, Texas Tech, Texas, TCU, Oklahoma*
Should be in: N/A
Work left to do: N/A
I think we’re stuck with nine Big 12 bids. Cincinnati and Kansas State, if they had any chance, should be out of it now that the field is much tighter after four bid steals. Meanwhile, Oklahoma’s lock status is becoming a bit iffy with how tight the bubble has become, but they should still make the tournament. Mar. 17
Locks
Houston — Last updated: Mar. 17
30–4 (15–3 Big 12), NET 1, KP 2, SOR 1, 16–4 Q1, 3–0 Q2
Iowa State (autobid) — Last updated: Mar. 17
27–7 (13–5 Big 12), NET 6, KP 5, SOR 5, 10–6 Q1, 6–1 Q2
BYU — Last updated: Mar. 17
23–10 (10–8 Big 12), NET 12, KP 16, SOR 21, 6–8 Q1, 5–2 Q2
Baylor — Last updated: Mar. 17
22–10 (11–7 Big 12), NET 14, KP 14, SOR 8, 10–9 Q1, 4–1 Q2
Kansas — Last updated: Mar. 17
21–10 (10–8 Big 12), NET 20, KP 22, SOR 12, 7–9 Q1, 6–0 Q2, 1 Q3 loss
Texas Tech — Last updated: Mar. 17
23–10 (11–7 Big 12), NET 28, KP 25, SOR 19, 6–9 Q1, 4–1 Q2
Texas — Last updated: Mar. 17
20–12 (9–9 Big 12), NET 30, KP 28, SOR 27, 5–9 Q1, 3–2 Q2, 1 Q3 loss
TCU — Last updated: Mar. 17
21–12 (9–9 Big 12), NET 42, KP 32, SOR 26, 5–11 Q1, 3–1 Q2
Oklahoma* — Last updated: Mar. 17
20–12 (8–10 Big 12), NET 46, KP 44, SOR 31, 4–12 Q1, 5–0 Q2
I am no longer confident about Oklahoma being a lock, with the recent bid steals, and other bracketologists being lower on them than I expected. However, my philosophy is that a lock is permanent, so they stay here.
Big East
Locks: UConn, Creighton, Marquette
Should be in: N/A
Work left to do: St. John’s, Villanova, Providence, Seton Hall
UConn will look for the Big East title tonight against Marquette. Meanwhile, St. John’s has played their way to possibly the right side of the bubble, while Villanova has played their way pretty much out, and Seton Hall and Providence sit as longshots heading into Selection Sunday. The range seems to be three to five bids here. Mar. 17
Locks
UConn (autobid) — Last updated: Mar. 17
31–3 (18–2 Big East), NET 2, KP 1, SOR 2, 13–3 Q1, 8–0 Q2
Creighton — Last updated: Mar. 17
23–9 (14–6 Big East), NET 11, KP 11, SOR 14, 8–5 Q1, 7–4 Q2
Marquette — Last updated: Mar. 17
25–9 (14–6 Big East), NET 13, KP 12, SOR 6, 9–8 Q1, 6–1 Q2
Work left to do
St. John’s — Last updated: Mar. 17
20–13 (11–9 Big East), NET 32, KP 26, SOR 46, 4–10 Q1, 6–2 Q2, 1 Q3 loss
What a difference one day can make. Just yesterday, St. John’s looked like a safe bet to make the tournament, likely being the last 10-seed or first 11-seed. They played well but lost vs. UConn in the Big East tournament, but that’s only a Q1 loss, so they should still be fine, right? Wrong. There are now two extra bid stealers and four total bid stealers, and St. John’s placement around the last 10-seed to the first 11-seed is now right where the cut line stands. Their profile is bolstered by St. John’s sitting top-26 in both predictive metrics, with the one big issue being their atrocious KPI, sitting in the 70s; luckily, their SOR is quite a bit higher and more in line with what their quadrant records indicate. I’d guess St. John’s is right on the bubble heading into the selection show.
Villanova — Last updated: Mar. 17
18–15 (10–10 Big East), NET 41, KP 34, SOR 65, 4–11 Q1, 5–1 Q2, 3 Q3 losses
The Big East tournament was a disaster for Villanova, who had to escape DePaul on a game-winning three in the final ten seconds before bowing out to Marquette in OT in the quarterfinals. Their metrics took a hit from the horrid DePaul performance, and they didn’t get the resume boost they really needed with a Marquette win, so I don’t think they have much of a realistic chance to get in; bracketologists seem to agree, as they’re in no brackets as of today. Last year’s Rutgers still feels like a comparable (if not better) version of this Villanova, with the main differences being Rutgers having one less loss and one more Q3 loss, and we know what happened to that Rutgers team (if you don’t, they missed the tournament despite being projected in).
Providence — Last updated: Mar. 17
21–13 (10–10 Big East), NET 57, KP 54, SOR 42, 6–9 Q1, 3–4 Q2
Providence picked up a much needed win over Creighton in the Big East quarterfinals to bolster their profile. Their predictive metrics have gone up a lot through the tournament, with their KenPom and BPI both being up several spots, and that’s big for a profile that before was heavily relying on resume. Speaking of their resume, the Creighton win was their sixth Q1 win on the year, and third Q1-A win; their SOR has now cracked the top-45 as a result. Their run is now over after their comeback attempt against Marquette fell just short, and the looming question is how their conference tournament run will be weighed; that’ll probably be the determiner as to whether they make the field or not, but it’s looking unlikely with a few less spots open due to Oregon and NC State stealing bids.
Seton Hall — Last updated: Mar. 17
20–12 (13–7 Big East), NET 67, KP 62, SOR 36, 5–8 Q1, 4–3 Q2, 1 Q3 loss
Seton Hall is probably now on the wrong side of the cut line, after NC State and Oregon stole bids. Their metrics have been low this entire time, but that’s come to the forefront of things, with their predictive metric average of 65.5 being worryingly low, and KPI is doing them no favors on the resume end of things. They’re basically relying on their resume being good enough, and when one of the two resume metrics is not supporting you, it’s tough to get in. We’ll see if their name is called Sunday.
Big Ten
Locks: Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Northwestern
Should be in: Michigan State
Work left to do: N/A
Goodbye, Ohio State; not making a B1G tourney run and multiple bids being stolen is enough to knock the Buckeyes out of the picture. Expect to see six Big 12 teams in, with Michigan State being fairly certain even if not a lock. Mar. 17
Locks
Purdue — Last updated: Mar. 17
29–4 (17–3 B1G), NET 3, KP 3, SOR 3, 12–4 Q1, 8–0 Q2
Illinois (autobid) — Last updated: Mar. 17
26–8 (14–6 B1G), NET 15, KP 10, SOR 9, 8–6 Q1, 6–1 Q2, 1 Q3 loss
Wisconsin — Last updated: Mar. 17
22–13 (11–9 B1G), NET 18, KP 17, SOR 18, 5–9 Q1, 9–4 Q2
Nebraska — Last updated: Mar. 17
23–10 (12–8 B1G), NET 33, KP 29, SOR 24, 4–7 Q1, 5–3 Q2
Northwestern — Last updated: Mar. 17
21–11 (12–8 B1G), NET 53, KP 46, SOR 29, 4–7 Q1, 5–3 Q2, 1 Q4 loss
Should be in
Michigan State — Last updated: Mar. 17
19–14 (10–10 B1G), NET 24, KP 19, SOR 49, 3–9 Q1, 6–5 Q2
Damn, glad I didn’t lock Michigan State yesterday. With the way the bubble has shuffled, they’re suddenly in actual danger. I’d still be surprised to see the Spartans miss the tournament at this point, but their resume is worse than most bubble teams’; with just three Q1 wins, of which only a win over Baylor in Detroit is Q1-A, their 6–5 Q2 record does not inspire confidence. The lack of a loss below Q2 saves their resume from being even worse, but their case mainly centers around their (admittedly excellent) predictive metrics. Expect to see the Spartans around the first four come the selection show.
Mountain West
Locks: San Diego State, New Mexico, Boise State, Nevada, Colorado State, Utah State
Should be in: N/A
Work left to do: N/A
Congratulations, New Mexico, on clinching a spot in the NCAA tournament. It’ll be the Lobos’ first trip since 2014, and I’m glad they made it, because this is a fun group to watch. We should see six teams from the Mountain West called on Sunday, and assuming we do, I’d have to imagine this is the first time a non–power conference got more than half their teams in the field. Mar. 17
Locks
San Diego State — Last updated: Mar. 17
22–10 (11–7 MWC), NET 21, KP 21, SOR 28, 4–9 Q1, 6–1 Q2
New Mexico (autobid) — Last updated: Mar. 17
25–9 (10–8 MWC), NET 22, KP 23, SOR 54, 5–6 Q1, 3–1 Q2, 1 Q3 loss, 1 Q4 loss
Boise State — Last updated: Mar. 17
20–10 (13–5 MWC), NET 27, KP 39, SOR 61, 6–5 Q1, 3–4 Q2, 1 Q3 loss
Nevada — Last updated: Mar. 17
25–7 (13–5 MWC), NET 34, KP 36, SOR 32, 6–6 Q1, 2–0 Q2, 1 Q3 loss
Colorado State — Last updated: Mar. 17
22–10 (10–8 MWC), NET 36, KP 38, SOR 56, 6–7 Q1, 3–2 Q2, 1 Q3 loss
Utah State — Last updated: Mar. 17
25–6 (14–4 MWC), NET 38, KP 48, SOR 23, 4–5 Q1, 4–1 Q2
Pac-12
Locks: Arizona, Washington State, Oregon
Should be in: N/A
Work left to do: Colorado
Maybe we’ll get four Pac-12 teams in after all. Oregon stole the Pac-12 autobid, and there’s still probably room for Colorado, so it looks like that fourth bid is likely now. Mar. 17
Locks
Arizona — Last updated: Mar. 17
25–8 (15–5 Pac-12), NET 4, KP 6, SOR 13, 8–3 Q1, 7–4 Q2, 1 Q3 loss
Washington State — Last updated: Mar. 17
24–9 (14–6 Pac-12), NET 44, KP 42, SOR 35, 6–4 Q1, 3–4 Q2, 1 Q3 loss
Oregon (autobid) — Last updated: Mar. 17
23–11 (12–8 Pac-12), NET 59, KP 55, SOR 47, 4–6 Q1, 5–4 Q2, 1 Q3 loss
Work left to do
Colorado — Last updated: Mar. 17
25–10 (13–7 Pac-12), NET 25, KP 27, SOR 37, 4–5 Q1, 6–5 Q2
I guess one way to make Colorado bubbly again would be to bring the bubble to them. With no Q1-A wins, a best pre-conference tournament win of at Oregon, and half their Q1 wins coming in the conference tournament, I think the most you can say for Colorado is that they’re on the right side of the bubble. Their metrics look the part, as even the altitude-riddled BPI has them up to 44th, and their resume looks decent enough to get in, but the question is whether they were in good enough shape before the conference tournament that they’re still in the field today. I’d lean towards yes, but I can’t say they’re safe at all, not even safe enough to bump them to should be in.
SEC
Locks: Auburn, Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky, Florida, South Carolina
Should be in: N/A
Work left to do: Mississippi State, Texas A&M
Mississippi State and Texas A&M remain on the bubble after being eliminated from the SEC tournament, the former seemingly in and the latter out. Elsewhere, there’s not much to talk about. Mar. 17
Locks
Auburn (autobid) — Last updated: Mar. 17
27–7 (13–5 SEC), NET 5, KP 4, SOR 11, 3–7 Q1, 10–0 Q2
Tennessee — Last updated: Mar. 17
24–8 (14–4 SEC), NET 7, KP 7, SOR 7, 8–7 Q1, 5–1 Q2
Alabama — Last updated: Mar. 17
21–11 (13–5 SEC), NET 9, KP 13, SOR 17, 4–10 Q1, 7–1 Q2
Kentucky — Last updated: Mar. 17
23–9 (13–5 SEC), NET 19, KP 18, SOR 20, 6–7 Q1, 2–1 Q2, 1 Q3 loss
Florida — Last updated: Mar. 17
24–11 (11–7 SEC), NET 26, KP 24, SOR 16, 6–8 Q1, 4–2 Q2, 1 Q3 loss
South Carolina — Last updated: Mar. 17
26–7 (13–5 SEC), NET 51, KP 49, SOR 10, 6–5 Q1, 5–0 Q2, 2 Q3 losses
Work left to do
Mississippi State — Last updated: Mar. 17
21–13 (8–10 SEC), NET 31, KP 30, SOR 38, 4–9 Q1, 4–3 Q2, 1 Q4 loss
Blowing out Tennessee would usually be a major resume boost, incredibly helpful for someone on the bubble. However, Mississippi State blew out Tennessee during the conference tournament, and results there are notoriously undervalued. As such, while Mississippi State’s profile seemingly looks good enough to make the tournament right now, it’s likely not as strong as it looks. I wouldn’t be shocked to see this team miss—they were hanging around the bubble before the conference tournament, and in that time, four bid stealers have arisen (though two of those bids were projected to be stolen by over half of bracketologists). We’ll see if three Q1-A wins and a pretty average bubble resume are enough to get Mississippi State in, and I’d expect it would be, but their true road record doesn’t look too good, so that’s another point for snubbing them (though they are 8–1 on neutral courts).
Texas A&M — Last updated: Mar. 17
20–14 (9–9 SEC), NET 45, KP 43, SOR 45, 7–7 Q1, 6–3 Q2, 4 Q3 losses
I think Texas A&M may have been doomed by the swarm of bid steals, as they were already likely on the outside looking in before NC State and Oregon’s conference tournament wins. They are up to seven Q1 wins, which is hard to leave out, but two of them came in the conference tournament, and the four Q3 losses A&M has make it hard to include them in the field. Before the conference tournament, their profile looked extremely similar to 2023 Rutgers, a team that got snubbed in the end, and I mentioned last time that building a profile in the SEC tournament did them no good in 2022 when they were the snub of the year. I don’t think things are looking good for the Aggies, but we’ll see later today.
Others
Autobids: Saint Mary's, Drake
Locks: Gonzaga, Dayton
Should be in: N/A
Work left to do: Indiana State, Florida Atlantic
FAU seems to be in, while Indiana State is probably not quite going to make it. South Florida and Princeton’s losses in their conference tournament semifinals are too much for either team to have a realistic at-large chance, and they’ll be unfortunate absences this March. Mar. 17
Autobids
Saint Mary’s — Last updated: Mar. 17
25–7 (15–1 WCC), NET 16, KP 20, SOR 49, 5–3 Q1, 3–2 Q2, 2 Q3 losses
Drake — Last updated: Mar. 17
27–6 (16–4 MVC), NET 47, KP 51, SOR 43, 4–1 Q1, 3–3 Q2, 2 Q3 losses
Locks
Gonzaga — Last updated: Mar. 17
24–7 (14–2 WCC), NET 17, KP 15, SOR 22, 3–6 Q1, 4–1 Q2
Dayton — Last updated: Mar. 17
24–7 (14–4 A-10), NET 23, KP 32, SOR 25, 3–4 Q1, 5–3 Q2
Work left to do
Indiana State — Last updated: Mar. 17
27–6 (17–3 MVC), NET 29, KP 45, SOR 39, 1–4 Q1, 4–1 Q2, 1 Q4 loss
Well, it’s time to wait and see for Indiana State. Despite a valiant comeback attempt when down as much as 18 with less than 10 minutes to go, the Sycamores couldn’t quite take the Missouri Valley championship, and they’re left on the bubble hoping they get an at-large. They’ll be stuck at 1–4 Q1, 4–1 Q2 with the ugly Q4 home loss to Illinois State and their one Q1 win being at Bradley, which isn’t an ideal profile, but their metrics are solid enough across the board that it’s enough to have them in the conversation. Unfortunately, with bids being stolen left and right, a bid keeps looking less and less likely for the Sycamores.
Florida Atlantic — Last updated: Mar. 17
25–8 (14–4 AAC), NET 39, KP 41, SOR 40, 2–2 Q1, 8–3 Q2, 1 Q3 loss, 2 Q4 losses
I just can’t say FAU is safe after losing a low Q3 game to Temple in the conference tournament, and after two bids were stolen. I’ve been lower on them than most bracketologists this year, and I see them as a pretty clear bubble team as of today. They’re probably on the right side of the bubble, but with two Q4 losses and a Q3 loss and just two Q1 wins (though one is a huge win against Arizona), I can’t say they’re anywhere near safe. Their metrics took a bit of a hit from that loss, with their KenPom falling out of the top-40 and the rest of their metrics falling closer to 40th, so they’re more bubbly in that aspect too. If FAU was safely in before yesterday, they’ll be in, but if they weren’t I could easily see them being barely on the wrong side of the cut line.
Statistics
This portion will cover teams moving in/out across the past week-ish. (It's pretty loose, so I just leave here what I think makes sense to include at this point.)
+ N/A (+Oregon, NC State as bid stealers)
– Ohio State, Wake Forest, Iowa, Utah
Teams on my radar: Cincinnati, Wake Forest, Ohio State, Kansas State, South Florida, Princeton
Total locks/autobids: 40 (9 clinched autobids)
Total should be in: 1
Total work left to do: 11
Spots vs. teams included (accounting for autobids): 36, 31 taken by locks/should be in, 4 spots for 11 work left to do
If you’ve made it this far, thanks for reading! Remember to check back here, as this will be updated throughout the season. I also do bracketology over at my blog, so feel free to check that out.