World Cup Group Stage: At The Half
Where the World Cup is and where it's going!
Though it’s baffling to me that it’s already been a week, we’re here at the halfway mark of the group stage! Half of our groups have played 2 games, half have played 1, but with this being the relative midpoint of everything, it’s a good time to get caught up on the action and look towards all the things coming up.Â
World Cup posting schedule:
November 15: Group A + B Preview
November 16: Group C + D Preview
November 17: Group E + F Preview
November 18: Group G + H Preview
November 20: World Cup Pick ‘em Contest
November 26: Group Stage Halfway
December 3: Round of 16 Preview
December 8: Round of 8 Preview
December 12: Semifinals Preview
December 16: Final/Third Place Preview
Don’t forget! You can also join our World Cup bracket challenge before games begin on December 4th. Here's the link!
Group A
Remaining Games:
11/29: NED-QAT, ECU-SEN
The Scenario:
Qatar was the first team eliminated from the World Cup. They can only earn a maximum of three points, and 2nd place will have a minimum of four points. If they beat the Dutch and Senegal loses by a greater margin than four goals, they can sneak away third.
The Dutch control their own destiny. If they win or draw, they are through.
The pivot match here is Ecuador-Senegal. If the Senegalese win, they’re in. With a draw, Senegal will need Qatar to win by at least three goals to overtake the Dutch on goal differential. If Senegal loses, they’re out, Ecuador locks in.
Ecuador faces a similar situation without the goal differental hijinks. Win, they’re in. Draw, they’re in. Lose, and they’re gone.
Group B
Remaining Games:
11/29: IRN-USA, WAL-ENG
The Scenario:
No team has fully clinched, no team is eliminated.
England will clinch with a win or a draw, but a loss makes things very messy indeed.
Wales has to win to get in. If they draw, they cannot overtake second place. If they win by at least four goals, then they can make things incredibly challenging for the group math.
The United States also finds themselves in a must-win position. If they draw Iran, Iran will advance and the US cannot overtake England. If the US wins and England loses, then things also get really messy, but that is more a facet of seeding than anything else.
The major consideration comes if England loses, because that places them and Wales level on points. Should Iran and the US draw, that would place three teams equal on four points, and it would come to goal differential. If the United States beats Iran, then it will come back to goal differential as well for England-Wales to determine second, as is true for the inverse result.
Group C
Remaining Games:
11/30: KSA-MEX, POL-ARG
The Scenario:
Chaos abounded at first with Saudi Arabia pulling off an insane upset to topple Argentina - but with two rounds done, things look a lot more normalized. If only it was that simple.
Poland has the least work to do - but even they aren’t completely safe. A win or draw would see them through, as they do have a point advantage on the remainder of their group - but a loss opens the door. If Poland loses, they cannot afford for Saudi Arabia to win by a margin of four goals or greater, as that would put the Saudis through.
Argentina has bounced back nicely from their upset bid, but a challenging opponent in Poland lies ahead. A loss sees them exit, as in all cases, they would be passed by one of KSA or MEX (KSA win puts them on 6 pts, MEX win on 4 pts, a draw would put KSA on 4 pts to Argentina’s 3). If Argentina draws, the same tiebreaks arise with the complicator of Argentina’s own status on 4 points in that group - if Saudi Arabia wins, they’ll take the group, with Poland second. If it is a draw or a Mexico win, then it goes to goal differential.
Saudi Arabia has surprised many with their opening salvo, but didn’t look as impressive against Poland. They’ll need to rebound against a Mexico team fighting for its life. If the Saudis win - they’re through. If they draw, it goes to the tiebreakers mentioned above - they’ll be rooting for a Poland win, certainly. A loss sees them bow out, as they’ll fall behind Mexico.
Mexico needs the most help here, as they’re in a must-win situation. If they win, they need a Poland defeat of Argentina, or, if it comes to a draw in the other match, they must beat Saudi Arabia by four goals or more to ensure the tiebreak advantage against Argentina. Tall task, indeed.
Group D
Remaining Games:
11/30: TUN-FRA, AUS-DEN
The Scenario:
The French are safely through. Their last game does not matter for them unless the combined margins of a Tunisia win and Australia win are greater than six goals. That is not very likely!
The Aussies are in the best position of the remaining teams, but they realistically need to win, as a draw does not leave them entirely safe. Tunisia, if they win, would have a superior goal difference, and thereby pass the Socceroos.
If Denmark and Tunisia both win, the team with the higher goal differential will advance. This is the only case in which either of these teams can get through. If both draw or both lose, then France and Australia will be D1 and D2.
Group E
Remaining Games:
11/27: ESP-GER, JPN-CRC
12/1: CRC-GER, JPN-ESP
The Scenario:
These next groups get really messy. Spain dominated Costa Rica in the opener, while Japan upset Germany hugely. Hard to call what might happen just yet, but as it stands, Spain and Japan can clinch E1 and E2 with wins tomorrow. Germany must hope that it can either beat or draw Spain AND that Japan only takes a point or less from Costa Rica, while the Central Americans need basically everything to swing their way at this point.
Group F
Remaining Games:
11/27: CRO-CAN, BEL-MAR
12/1: CAN-MAR, CRO-BEL
The Scenario:
Belgium leads early, but this one is very open indeed. No team through, no team out. Match Day 3 in this group is going to prove remarkably interesting - with the odds that at least three teams have a path to clinching following tomorrow’s matches, all is yet to play for.
Group G
Remaining Games:
11/28: BRA-SUI, CMR-SRB
12/2: CMR-BRA, SRB-SUI
The Scenario:
Because Brazil and Switzerland play each other, it’s not guaranteed that both teams can clinch, but it is guaranteed that if one team wins, that team moves through to the next round. Inversely, should there be a loser of Cameroon-Serbia, that team is eliminated from advancement.
If Cameroon and Serbia play to a draw, then things get messy with the loser of Brazil-Switzerland, while a draw in the latter game would make things absolutely atrocious to work out. Let’s not think about it.
Group H
Remaining Games:
11/28: POR-URU, KOR-GHA
12/2: KOR-POR, GHA-URU
The Scenario:
Portugal holds serve over the group as it stands, but a matchup with Uruguay could very well determine the fate of the latter, as a loss pending the result of South Korea-Ghana might make it nigh impossible to move through - or at the very least, make it a must win for the 1930 champions.