2023 MLB Predictions

Bookmark 'em and laugh at us later!

, and

Mar 30, 2023

Let’s not beat around the bush. Baseball’s back! We love baseball. You love baseball. Let’s talk baseball!

Division Champs

Please keep in mind that three of us are Twins fans.

AL East

Eli: Yankees — I refuse to allow myself to fall victim to the Blue Jays preseason hype train again. The rotation is gonna be a question mark given Carlos Rodón and Luis Severino are starting the season on the IL and Frankie Montas might not pitch at all in 2023, but it was also ravaged by injuries last year and it turned out fine because the Yankees are a deep organization with a blank check. They haven’t been to the World Series since 2009 and they’re getting impatient. They will buy their way in if they have to.

David: Yankees — We live in the worst timeline, and so the Yankees will win. Next.

Maddy: Yankees — The Blue Jays have yet to prove they can be a consistent enough team to fight for the divisional crown and will relegate themselves to another Wild Card chaos moment that hopefully isn’t an 8-1 blown lead. Barring the Rays playing out of their minds again and winning 90+ games just because they can, the Yankees just need to not stumble too hard and they can take the division.

Preston: Red Sox — All right, hear me out. The AL East is a mess every year, and I have a hard time buying that the Yankees are just gonna sleepwalk to the division title again. They’re definitely the favorite on paper, but baseball is a funny game and New York did lose more 2022 WAR than any other team this offseason. (They also gained more WAR than anyone aside from the crosstown Mets, but turnover matters!) I still think they’ll have an excellent season, but I feel like we’re due for the Red Sox to come out of nowhere and be good again. Their offseason moves bring that 2021 Giants team to mind—lots of veterans to pair with a couple really intriguing young pieces in Masataka Yoshida and 2022 debutant Triston Casas. Am I just talking myself into a pick that makes no sense? Do I just hate the Yankees? No further questions.

AL Central

Eli: Twins — The Twins, Guardians, and White Sox all project eerily similarly. The Guardians won a war of attrition in this division last year, but they mostly stood pat this offseason while the other two teams made key improvements: the Twins replaced their entire training staff and added much-needed depth at pretty much every problem spot, while the White Sox are no longer being managed by a senile drunk driver. I think Minnesota’s more concrete additions will push them over the edge.

David: Twins — Eli said it pretty well - I think that the Twins have been hampered by conditions not entirely within their control over the past couple of years, and barring Emilio Pagán losing us every single one of his relief appearances, I think this will be the year we get over that hump.

Maddy: Twins — Twins win 90 games and take the division to satisfy the needs of some otherworldly being who really hates the MLB Central divisions. I am on the fence with how the White Sox will do this season, if they really have enough pieces to make a push. Guardians will have a summer hot streak. Twins just seem to be more complete. Please stay healthy Byron.

Preston: Twins — As someone who counts among their closest friends the three Twins fans directly above, I’m about as qualified to speak on their offseason as anybody who’s never so much as set foot in Minnesota. And honestly, they did pretty good! Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton might be the outright best one-two punch in any non-Angels lineup right now, and the Pablo López trade provides a high-floor anchor for the rotation. With multiple batter-friendly rule changes in place, it feels like this team has the little bit extra it needs to unseat Cleveland in the AL Central. What happens in the playoffs, well...that’s another matter.

AL West

Eli: Astros — The Mariners have excellent pitching and the Angels have an excellent lineup. The Astros have both. The Rangers, like the Mariners and Angels, have a Wild Card shot, but not much more.

David: Astros — They’re clearly one of the best teams in all of baseball, deep in basically every facet. It’s not difficult to see why people are projecting them to go far - and despite the Angels having both Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout, they’ll ‘Tungsten Arm’ O’Doyle themselves out of contention as they have for years now.

Maddy: Astros — The navy blue and orange beast will once again swallow up all hope of the AL West being in contention in September. Mariners and Angels will have a theoretical brawl for second place with the Rangers dreaming of being able to tag-team in. May the Oakland A’s finally get that stadium deal. Please.

Preston: Mariners — I am a Mariners fan, and I recognize that this makes the Red Sox pick look sound. But this pick is less about Seattle—which had a completely unexceptional offseason (okay, I like the Teoscar Hernández move) and will probably win 90-odd games again—and more about Houston. The Astros headlined their offseason by signing José Abreu, but they lost Justin Verlander, should expect regression from a pitching staff that overperformed its metrics, and now have to handle lengthy absences for José Altuve and Lance McCullers Jr. The roster is already unusually thin for a defending champion before the season’s begun, and that’s without mentioning Yordan Álvarez’s hand soreness in spring training. This offseason was messy, particularly in the front office, and it feels like Seattle might be able to pull a fast one.

NL East

Eli: Braves — It feels like everyone has picked the Mets to win this division every year of the Cohen regime only to see the baseball gods drag Atlanta kicking and screaming to another title. There might not be a single weak spot in the Braves lineup provided that Eddie Rosario doesn’t go blind again and one of their three possible shortstop options can hit serviceably.

David: Phillies — Bit of a wild pick, and I made this before Rhys Hoskins got hurt - but even then, I can’t help but have faith in the Philadelphia gang. I think this division is the one I’m probably least knowledgeable about, and so I more or less threw a dart.

Maddy: Mets — As a Nationals fan, I love being in probably most competitive division in baseball, even if that balloons our loss total. If you are wondering why I started this by talking about the Nationals it’s because I forgot I picked the Mets when, in reality, this is a super close 3(ish) horse race and I can easily see the division being decided by a game or two once again. Mets might edge out with their pitching, Braves might edge out with their hitting, Phillies might edge out by being insanely good for a long stretch. Who knows! Hope the Nationals only lose 102 games.

Preston: Braves — How many years now has everyone bet on the Phillies or Mets to finally put their talent together and pass Atlanta? This will mark the fifth straight in which countless writers overlook the perfectly solid reigning NL East champs for the bigger spenders in bigger markets, then watch the Braves go ahead and secure the division anyway. Nobody else in MLB has a division championship streak even half theirs, and it’s increasingly inexcusable to keep picking potential over proven results. With the Dodgers losing key pieces, the Astros injured, and the Yankees stubbornly refusing to go all-in, this might be the most complete roster in baseball.

NL Central

Eli: Cardinals — The Cardinals have two Hall-of-Famers hitting back-to-back in the middle of their order and the Brewers are relying far too much on bats who either have seen better days (Christian Yelich, Jesse Winker, Brian Anderson) or are unproven at the Major League level (Brice Turang, Garrett Mitchell). Milwaukee’s rotation is better, but as long as St. Louis’ rotation can duct tape itself together long enough to survive, I think they come out on top.

David: Brewers — I’m going to counter Eli and say that I think that it’s going to be those bats that will hopefully experience a bit of a revitalization and carry the Brew Crew to glory - and, as he said, the pitching rotations aren’t much of a contest. I don’t have any faith in St. Louis to sustain itself over a full season, so Milwaukee it is.

Maddy: Cardinals — That otherworldly being I mentioned in the AL Central section is probably a Cardinals fan. The Brewers are such a confusing team of great pitching but hitting that makes me look good (I had a great OBP in my day). The rest of the division is doing their best “I am a baseball team!” shtick. Cardinals probably won’t be a big flashy division winner with storylines galore (unless Nolan and/or Goldy doing something insane), but they’ll be good enough to play another home Wild Card series and hopefully not mess it up.

Preston: Brewers — The Cardinals are a perfectly solid team, but it’s surprising they’re such a consensus pick in a division whose last repeat champs were the 2016-17 Cubs. Milwaukee and St. Louis both made a number of little tweaks to their rosters in the offseason, and Chicago and Cincinnati made more comprehensive overhauls with at least an idea of making some noise. The Brewers had quietly made four straight playoffs before missing in 2022, and the lineup might actually be a little punchy if Christian Yelich and Jesse Winker can rediscover their high ceilings. Don’t sleep on this team to, at the very least, take the Cardinals down to the wire in yet another close NL Central chase.

NL West

Eli: Dodgers — It doesn’t really surprise me that almost every publication has picked the Padres to win this division over the Dodgers; the offseason additions and subtractions for each team seem dire on paper, and thus, they shook up the projections enough to put San Diego on top. It does surprise me that they seem so confident about it. Because me, personally, I’m just never going to believe the Dodgers aren’t the team to beat in the National League until I see it with my own eyes. This is the same organization that made Tyler Anderson look like Max Fried with the snap of a finger. They’ll probably win 100 games in their sleep and Noah Syndergaard will finish top-three in Cy Young voting because Dodgers.

David: Dodgers — LA is going to win this one running away because of course they will. This is the predetermined nature of things, the script that all things must follow. The sun rises in the east, sets in the west, and the Dodgers win the division and probably notch triple-digit victories while they do it.

Maddy: Dodgers — Mookie Betts is so cool. Dodgers win the division by like five games.

Preston: Dodgers — Come on, folks. I’m the lunatic picking the Yankees and Astros to miss out on their division titles, and even I think the Dodgers will win the NL West. Will they be worse after losing tons of key pieces in the offseason and making minimal moves? Undoubtedly. Will the Padres be better after making some great acquisitions and expecting Fernando Tatís Jr. back from suspension? Almost certainly. So why pick Los Angeles? Well, lest we forget, this team can afford to lose pieces; it’s had an embarrassment of talent over the last few years, and one offseason without adding even more won’t bring them down. The Padres have a 22-win margin to cover from last season, when they went 89-73 and the Dodgers went 111-51. They’ll be excellent, but that’s a bridge too far. I’m sticking with the safe pick.

Wild Cards

Who’s gonna sneak in?

American League

Eli: Mariners, Rays, White Sox — The expansion to three Wild Cards has truly made it feel like almost anyone has a good shot to reach the postseason. The only teams I eliminated off the bat were the Royals, Tigers, and Athletics.

I think Seattle’s pitching is too talented to miss unless they get absolutely destroyed by injuries, and if the bats can pick it up just a little bit, they might compete for the division. The Rays min-max their way to the postseason every year as of late, and I don’t expect that to suddenly stop now. And I think the White Sox not being managed by Tony La Russa really does significantly improve their outlook, as their failings last year were in large part because none of his day-to-day decisions made a lick of sense.

This race will go down to the wire. Toronto, Cleveland, and Los Angeles will all finish three or fewer games out of the playoffs. I don’t think these teams are bad by any stretch of the imagination, but some bubbles unfortunately have to pop.

David: Rays, Guardians, White Sox — I really, really want Seattle in, but I don’t think the magic’s there for this next run. Eli alluded to it, but it really does feel like any number of teams can get there this year. I’ve gone with the other two AL Central teams I feel are particularly capable of reaching the divisional title - and by extension, I think, the playoffs, and then Tampa just manages to fuck their way into the playoffs every year despite how they build their roster. Can’t take them out of it.

Maddy: Blue Jays, Mariners, Angels — As noted, the Blue Jays will conduct Wild Card chaos once again, while the Mariners’ and Angels’ fight for second in the West will also be a fight for the second Wild Card and avoiding a trip to Target Field to face the Twins in a series full of “(blank) years since last postseason series win”.

Preston: Astros, Yankees, Guardians — Everything I wrote about the AL West above said, I do still think the M’s will have to win quite a few games to oust the Astros. I expect this team to take a significant step back, but they’re not missing the playoffs anytime soon. There will be talk of that if they end up here, because it’ll likely be with a slow start and a spirited finish at full health, but I doubt this team will stay down. It’d be fun, though.

Nobody likes the Yankees, but I think we all agree it would’ve been just wrong for Aaron Judge to end up in another uniform. His return marked a point of stability in an offseason with lots of minor turnover for New York (out: Jameson Taillon, Andrew Benintendi, the detestable Aroldis Chapman, in: Carlos Rodón, Tommy Kahnle). The roster is solid, but until Rodón returns from injury, its third starter is...uh, Clarke Schmidt? It will probably all be fine, but winning over 100 games might be the demand to secure the AL East title, and New York didn’t even do that last year.

You know who the fastest team in MLB was last year? The Guardians. You know who stole the most bases in MLB last year? The Guardians. So who stands to benefit more from larger bases and the shift ban, which should both benefit fleet-footed, high-average hitters? The Guardians. Yes, ending up in the Wild Card represents a step down from last season’s division title, but I think this team will be better than last season—just not quite as good as the Twins. The Central might not be an embarrassment this season! Besides, it’s not like there’s anybody else who looks set for this last playoff spot; the Rays lost too much, the Blue Jays traded away a core lineup piece for peanuts, and the Rangers and Angels are the Rangers and Angels. Why not Cleveland?

National League

Eli: Padres, Mets, Phillies — I’ve predicted that the same six National League teams who made the 2022 playoffs will also make the 2023 playoffs. You could say this is lazy, but unless Milwaukee tops the Central or sneaks into the third Wild Card, I’m not sure how the deck changes beyond a few cards being shuffled around. Maybe Miami is real and they don’t sell everyone at the deadline? Again, I’ll believe it when I see it.

David: Mets, Padres, Giants — The Mets have a player named David Peterson, and therefore they are my team of choice. Padres and Giants seem like pretty easy picks down the rest of the line - the NL West at the top seems wicked strong, and Colorado and Arizona feed wins exactly like those teams need it.

Maddy: Braves, Padres, Brewers — I am very eh on the Brewers but I think they have just enough this time to sneak into the Wild Card. I know was kind to the Phillies in the NL East section, but with Harper and Hoskins out (Harper for about half the season), they are really gonna need some magic and a hot streak to make a charge for the division, or the Wild Card. Brewers will basically stumble their way in barring Phillies run. Braves and Padres are just good teams in tough divisions.

Preston: Padres, Mets, Cardinals — But yeah, hey, how about those Padres? I’m going with history in the NL West, but I’ve got to acknowledge that this roster looks as good as the Dodgers of the last decade, at least on paper. I mean, good lord—Juan Soto, Xander Bogaerts, Tatís, Manny Machado, Jake Cronenworth, Blake Snell, Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove. That’s a terrifying wealth of talent. It’d be so much fun if it all comes together. And hey, as long as they make the playoffs...

You really have to feel bad for Mets fans. Not only do they have to bear witness to a constantly overhyped team with just two World Series titles (none in the last 37 years), they also don’t get the joy of being a Mets hater. Do you know how fun that is? There is no more enjoyable experience in sports than the schadenfreude of seeing everybody talk up your rival, then watching them fall short of expectations. Does a Wild Card berth and a probable 100-win season count as a failure? Not by any reasonable standard, but this is New York, so of course it does. And that’s great.

Whoever’s in the last Wild Card spot is gonna be really underwhelming. Atlanta, Los Angeles, San Diego, New York, and the NL Central champ will all be between solid and elite, but the playoff options behind them are limited, to say the least. The Phillies were set to coast to a spot, and then they lost Bryce Harper for two months and Rhys Hoskins for the season. The Marlins and Nationals are hardly attractive candidates, nor those Pirates, Cubs, and Reds (though a few of that number have fringe chances). I will admit to being slightly intrigued by the Diamondbacks and Giants, but the Rockies certainly aren’t going anywhere. That leaves us the Cardinals, who always seem to be in the perfect position to be that last, underwhelming playoff bid (when they don’t win their division). Besides, they’re probably going to be squabbling with the Brewers all year; why not just settle it with a postseason best-of-three?

Postseason Predictions

For all the marbles.

ALCS

Eli: Yankees over Twins in 6 games

David: Yankees over Rays in 6 games

Maddy: Astros over Yankees in 5 games

Preston: Yankees over Red Sox in 6 games

NLCS

Eli: Dodgers over Padres in 7 games

David: Padres over Dodgers in 7 games

Maddy: Braves over Dodgers in 6 games

Preston: Padres over Braves in 7 games

World Series

Eli: Dodgers over Yankees in 5 games — This is the unlikeliest year in a while for a Dodgers/Yankees World Series, which is exactly why it will happen.

David: Padres over Yankees in 5 games — I think whoever wins the NL slugfest takes this one. If the Dodgers beat the Padres, then it’d be the Dodgers, but I’m taking San Diego in this one.

Maddy: Astros over Braves in 6 games — The navy blue and orange beast will end the drought of back-to-back champions but the Braves will be fun.

Preston: Padres over Yankees in 6 games — I feel better about both of these teams in a short October series than I do overall. Both will have a key piece back after missing time early (Tatís and Rodón, respectively), and both have considerable depth in the lineup that should weather the long season well. It’s not hard to see the Yankees overpowering San Diego here, but there’s always a note of wishful thinking to my preseason predictions, and wouldn’t the Padres finally winning it all be fun?

Share The Low Major

Player Awards

And also Manager of the Year.
Format: American League, National League

Most Valuable Player

Eli: Shohei Ohtani, Trea Turner

David: Shohei Ohtani, Manny Machado

Maddy: Shohei Ohtani, Nolan Arenado

Preston: Julio Rodríguez, Mookie Betts

Cy Young

Eli: Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer

David: Shohei Ohtani, Max Scherzer

Maddy: Shohei Ohtani, Max Scherzer

Preston: Dylan Cease, Joe Musgrove

Rookie of the Year

Eli: Triston Casas, Ezequiel Tovar

David: Gunnar Henderson, Corbin Carroll

Maddy: Gunnar Henderson, idk man

Preston: Matasaka Yoshida, Jordan Walker

Manager of the Year

Eli: Rocco Baldelli, Rob Thomson

David: Kevin Cash, Bob Melvin

Maddy: Phil Nevin, not Dave Roberts

Preston: Scott Servais, Bob Melvin

Minutiae

It’s the little things that make baseball great!

Worst record

Eli: Nationals

David: Rockies

Maddy: Athletics

Preston: Athletics

Average regular season game time

Eli: 2:45

David: 2:51

Maddy: 2:36

Preston: 2:47

Will any regular season or postseason game end due to a pitch clock violation?

Eli: No.

David: Yes, both a pitcher and a batter will violate the pitch clock rule to end a game at least once.

Maddy: Yes, both a pitcher and a batter will violate the pitch clock rule to end a game at least once.

Preston: Yes, a batter will run out of time on a two-strike count with two outs, resulting in him being called out and the game being declared over.

General hot takes

Eli: Byron Buxton will play 120+ games. Please. Trea Turner will steal 60+ bases. A brawl will break out between two of the three AL Central contenders at some point in the regular season; I could picture any of the three combinations getting into it.

David: Someone breaks Aaron Judge’s home run record.

Maddy: The Oakland Athletics will finally get their stadium deal done and will stay in Oakland.

Preston: Jarred Kelenic finally makes it as a big leaguer. I have to believe.