Big Ten Men's Basketball Retrospectives

A short season summary for each of the conference's 14 teams

For most of this season, I’ve been writing a series of daily Big Ten men’s basketball recaps on the public r/CollegeBasketball Discord server; I call it “B1G Time Rush”. These blurbs usually take about 15 minutes per day to throw together and have become my favorite part of my morning routine. I love this conference, flawed as it is, and I’ve enjoyed keeping up with it to such an intense degree.

The B1G regular season ended yesterday, so for today’s post, I put together a somewhat longer retrospective for each of the conference’s 14 teams. This read as more of a longform post than a recap, and I put a lot of effort into it, so I figured I’d go ahead and publish it for a wider audience.

Here’s the end-of-season retrospective edition of B1G Time Rush.

First things first…

I’m going to be using a lot of abbreviations in this post, so I’ll go ahead and put the glossary at the front so fans who don’t pore over metrics all day know what I’m talking about.

KP: KenPom ranking | AdjO: KenPom Adjusted Offense | AdjD: KenPom Adjusted Defense | AdjEM: KenPom Adjusted Efficiency Margin (his primary team rating)

Torvik: Bart Torvik’s Barthag ranking/rating | PRPG!: Points over Replacement Player per Game at That Usage (Torvik’s primary player rating)

NET: The NCAA Evaluation Tool, used to separate teams into quadrants (which should actually be called quartiles) for an easy and broad résumé overview

All postseason projections are per the Bracket Matrix consensus at time of publication.

Without further ado, and in order of the final conference standings…

1. Purdue Boilermakers

Predicted 5th in preseason poll
Summary: 26-5 (15-5) | KP: 6 (+24.18) | Torvik: 6 (.9342) | NET: 5
Quad records: 9-4 | 7-1 | 5-0 | 5-0
Postseason projection: Fourth 1-seed

Purdue won its first outright regular season B1G title since 2017 despite a shaky February that saw them go 3-4 and get swept by rival Indiana. Their only loss outside that month was a one-point home loss to Rutgers on January 2. They spent most of the season being dominant offensively, defensively, or both.

Player of the year: Zach Edey (Sr); 6.8 PRPG!, 21.9 ppg, 12.8 rpg, 61.1% FG
Newcomer of the year: Braden Smith (Fr); 3.6 PRPG!, 10.0 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 4.2 apg

2. Northwestern Wildcats

Predicted 13th in preseason poll
Summary: 21-10 (12-8) | KP: 43 (+14.88) | Torvik: 34 (.8410) | NET: 38
Quad records: 7-5 | 4-5 | 2-0 | 8-0
Postseason projection: Third 7-seed

If anyone in the league outperformed their projections this year, it was Northwestern, who won 12 conference games for legitimately the first time ever (granted, a 20-game schedule makes that easier than it's been for most of their history). And they did it almost entirely through defense and fundamentals; the Wildcats finished 313th in the country in eFG%, but 18th in AdjD and 20th in offensive turnover%. Chris Collins is a lock for B1G Coach of the Year.

Player of the year: Boo Buie (Sr); 3.9 PRPG!, 17.2 ppg, 4.5 apg, 87.6% FT
Newcomer of the year: Tydus Verhoeven (Sr transfer from UTEP); 0.8 PRPG!, 2.5 ppg

3. Indiana Hoosiers

Predicted 1st in preseason poll
Summary: 21-10 (12-8) | KP: 30 (+16.93) | Torvik: 31 (.8465) | NET: 29
Quad records: 5-8 | 6-2 | 4-0 | 6-0
Postseason projection: Third 4-seed

In a sense, this qualifies as a disappointment for Indiana: they struggled out of the gates to a 1-4 start in conference play and this season wasn't quite the coronation they'd hoped it'd be. In a much broader sense, they're on track to earn their highest seed in the NCAA Tournament since they got a 1-seed in 2013, so they're certainly heading in the right direction. Mike Woodson was a good hire.

Player of the year: Trayce Jackson-Davis (4th yr Jr); 5.9 PRPG!, 20.5 ppg, 11.0 rpg, 2.6 bpg, 56.9 FG%
Newcomer of the year: Jalen Hood-Schifino (Fr); 1.8 PRPG!, 13.4 ppg, 78.3 FT%

4. Michigan State Spartans

Predicted 4th in preseason poll
Summary: 19-11 (11-8) | KP: 28 (+17.29) | Torvik: 27 (.8598) | NET: 31
Quad records: 6-9 | 6-1 | 3-1 | 4-0
Postseason projection: Second 7-seed

Michigan State's non-con slate was a rollercoaster, including a slim loss to Gonzaga on the slippery aircraft carrier court, a 2OT win over Kentucky, a home win over Villanova, a PK85 loss to Alabama and win over Oregon, and a blowout loss at Notre Dame. The conference slate was similarly inconsistent, owing to their near-.500 record, but one thing is clear: this team can flat out shoot (40.1 3P%, third in the country).

Player of the year: Joey Hauser (Sr); 4.1 PRPG!, 14.2 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 85.9 FT%, 45.9 3P%
Newcomer of the year: Jaxon Kohler (Fr): 0.4 PRPG!, 3.3 ppg, 3.1 rpg

5. Iowa Hawkeyes

Predicted 7th in preseason poll
Summary: 19-12 (11-9) | KP: 35 (+15.75) | Torvik: 38 (.8272) | NET: 37
Quad records: 6-7 | 7-2 | 1-2 | 5-1
Postseason projection: Fourth 7-seed

Iowa looked exactly like they always have under Fran McCaffery: incredible offense (3rd in the country in AdjO), putrid defense (169th in AdjD). This year, they also took some baffling losses, including a season sweep by Nebraska and a nine-point home loss to an Eastern Illinois team that didn't even qualify for the OVC Tournament.

Player of the year: Kris Murray (Jr); 5.5 PRPG!, 20.5 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 59.3 2P%
Newcomer of the year: Josh Dix (Fr); 0.6 PRPG!, 2.1 ppg, 40.0 3P%

6. Maryland Terrapins

Predicted 10th in preseason poll
Summary: 20-11 (11-9) | KP: 20 (+18.77) | Torvik: 28 (.8551) | NET: 26
Quad records: 3-9 | 5-2 | 4-0 | 8-0
Postseason projection: Second 8-seed

Maryland began the season playing like one of the most efficient teams in the country, including neutral court blowouts over Saint Louis and Miami (FL), but came crashing down to earth with three straight losses at Wisconsin, vs. Tennessee in New York, and vs. UCLA at home, the last of which was a 27-point drubbing. Since then, they've played outstandingly at home (did not lose, including a win over Purdue) and horrendously on the road (only win was at Minnesota).

Player of the year: Jahmir Young (Sr); 4.1 PRPG!, 16.3 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 82.8 FT%
Newcomer of the year: Jahmir Young (transfer from Charlotte)

7. Illinois Fighting Illini

Predicted 2nd in preseason poll
Summary: 20-11 (11-9) | KP: 32 (+16.49) | Torvik: 44 (.8161) | NET: 33
Quad records: 2-10 | 7-1 | 4-0 | 7-0
Postseason projection: Third 8-seed

Fun fact: neither of Illinois' Quad 1 wins came in conference play, but both are better than almost any win they could have possibly gotten in the B1G. They beat UCLA in their neutral court MTE and later took down Texas in overtime, also on a neutral court. They've dropped all eight of their B1G Q1 opportunities and two more in the non-con (they lost to Virginia in the title game of that MTE and got blown out by Missouri in St. Louis).

Player of the year: Terrence Shannon Jr. (Sr); 4.1 PRPG!, 17.1 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 79.7 FT%
Newcomer of the year: Terrence Shannon Jr. (transfer from Texas Tech)

8. Michigan Wolverines

Predicted 3rd in preseason poll
Summary: 17-14 (11-9) | KP: 38 (+15.30) | Torvik: 43 (.8183) | NET: 54
Quad records: 3-11 | 5-2 | 5-0 | 4-1
Postseason projection: Fourth team out

There is perhaps no better representation of Michigan's season than losing to Central Michigan at home on December 29 and beating Maryland by 35 just three days later on January 1. At their best, the Wolverines are among the class of the conference; at their worst, they don't look too much better than the dregs.

Player of the year: Hunter Dickinson (Jr); 4.8 PRPG!, 18.2 ppg, 9.0 rpg, 1.7 bpg, 58.8 eFG%
Newcomer of the year: Jett Howard (Fr); 3.3 PRPG!, 14.5 ppg, 80.0 FT%

9. Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Predicted 8th in preseason poll
Summary: 18-13 (10-10) | KP: 42 (+15.02) | Torvik: 39 (.8268) | NET: 40
Quad records: 5-6 | 4-4 | 2-3 | 7-0
Postseason projection: Second 11-seed

Rutgers is the anti-Iowa: awful offense (174th in the country in AdjO), destructive defense (4th in AdjD). When the calendar flipped to February, they were firmly in the NCAA Tournament picture thanks in large part to a road win at Purdue. Then they finished the regular season losing six of eight, including a home loss to Nebraska and an even worse loss at Minnesota. They will need to avoid embarrassing themselves in the conference tournament to feel safe on Sunday.

Player of the year: Cam Spencer (Sr); 3.4 PRPG!, 12.7 ppg, 2.2 spg, 43.1 3P%
Newcomer of the year: Cam Spencer (transfer from Loyola (MD))

10. Penn State Nittany Lions

Predicted 11th in preseason poll
Summary: 19-12 (10-10) | KP: 50 (+14.20) | Torvik: 50 (.8101) | NET: 56
Quad records: 5-6 | 4-5 | 4-1 | 6-0
Postseason projection: Sixth 11-seed (last team in)

Penn State is the most experienced team in the country by a wide margin, averaging 4.05 years of D1 experience weighted by minutes played, per KenPom. All five members of their starting lineup are seniors and all but one are fifth-years. They're also all 6'6" or shorter, incredibly small by B1G standards. They almost never rebound (last in the country at 18.0 OReb%) or draw fouls (last, 18.8 FTA/FGA), instead choosing to make their money from behind the arc (5th, 48.2 3PA/FGA), which is probably a good idea for their personnel (7th, 38.9 3P%).

Player of the year: Jalen Pickett (5th yr Sr); 6.7 PRPG!, 18.0 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 7.0 apg
Newcomer of the year: Andrew Funk (5th yr Sr transfer from Bucknell); 2.9 PRPG!, 12.0 ppg, 81.3 FT%, 40.6 3P%

11. Nebraska Cornhuskers

Predicted 14th in preseason poll
Summary: 16-15 (9-11) | KP: 94 (+7.94) | Torvik: 104 (.6783) | NET: 92
Quad records: 4-10 | 3-5 | 2-0 | 7-0
Postseason projection: NIT hopeful

Nebraska's postseason hopes were dead in the water at the beginning of February, but they finished the regular season winning six of their last eight, including road wins at Rutgers and Iowa. They're actually only -1.3 wins above bubble¹ per Torvik, so if they keep this up, they could even play their way into the NCAA Tournament conversation. However, realistically they would still need the autobid.

Player of the year: Keisei Tominaga (4th yr Jr); 3.2 PRPG!, 12.8 ppg, 85.4 FT%, 40.3 3P%
Newcomer of the year: Sam Griesel (5th yr Sr transfer from North Dakota State); 2.2 PRPG!, 11.8 ppg, 5.6 rpg

12. Wisconsin Badgers

Predicted 9th in preseason poll
Summary: 17-13 (9-11) | KP: 72 (+11.85) | Torvik: 70 (.7690) | NET: 78
Quad records: 6-7 | 5-5 | 1-1 | 5-0
Postseason projection: First team out

The most emblematic indictment on Wisconsin's season isn't that they finished behind Nebraska in the conference standings, it's that they did so by virtue of losing the head-to-head tiebreaker. Wisconsin's 12th place finish in the league is their worst ever (because it was impossible to finish below 11th prior to 2014). They'll need a conference tournament run to have a decent shot of hearing their name called on Sunday, especially when possible bid stealers come into play.

Player of the year: Steven Crowl (Jr); 2.7 PRPG!, 11.6 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 57.4 2P%
Newcomer of the year: Connor Essegian (Fr); 2.5 PRPG!, 11.9 ppg, 87.3 FT%

13. Ohio State Buckeyes

Predicted 6th in preseason poll
Summary: 13-18 (5-15) | KP: 57 (+12.85) | Torvik: 65 (.7804) | NET: 63
Quad records: 2-12 | 5-4 | 0-1 | 6-1
Postseason projection: None

Ohio State looked amazing to start the season, rising as high as #10 in AdjEM on the heels of an excellent showing in Maui and a 2-0 start to B1G play. One of those two B1G wins was against Rutgers at home on a game-winning bucket that should not have counted because the refs didn't understand how out-of-bounds rules work, and I guess to make up for that, the basketball gods decided that Ohio State would never win a close game again. They lost seven games as betting favorites from then on, including a horrendous home loss to Minnesota.

Player of the year: Brice Sensabaugh (Fr); 4.0 PRPG!, 16.5 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 83.0 FT%, 41.5 3P%
Newcomer of the year: Brice Sensabaugh (Fr)

14. Minnesota Golden Gophers

Predicted 12th in preseason poll
Summary: 8-21 (2-17) | KP: 222 (-3.76) | Torvik: 221 (.3909) | NET: 231
Quad records: 1-10 | 1-8 | 1-2 | 5-1
Postseason projection: lol

An NIT hopeful season for Minnesota became disastrous before it even started as, for the second consecutive year, both Parker Fox and Isaiah Ihnen were declared out for the year after suffering injuries in the offseason. It didn't get any better from there. They beat some D1 bottomdwellers (and also California Baptist, randomly) in November and December to start the full slate of B1G play at a respectable 6-6 overall, but they'd only win two more games the rest of the way. One of them was at Ohio State, which still counts as a Quad 1 win for...reasons; the other was vs. Rutgers on a heroic buzzer-beater three by Jamison Battle as time expired. To add insult to insult, Minnesota finished the season last in the country in free throw shooting at 61.5%.

Player of the year: Dawson Garcia (3rd yr So); 2.8 PRPG!, 15.6 ppg, 6.6 rpg
Newcomer of the year: Dawson Garcia (transfer from North Carolina)

Final thoughts

This was an incredibly tight year in the B1G, with just three games separating second place and 12th (for reference, last year that gap was eight games). This gave almost every individual game even more meaning than usual and made following the conference more fun.

The conference provided a lot of rough, tough, Midwestern basketball, as seven of its 14 teams finished in the bottom 100 in the country in adjusted tempo² while only two finished in the top 100.³ This made the games themselves pretty brutal to watch at some points, but the overall wealth of talent in the conference made up for the slow pace. Zach Edey's 6.8 PRPG! led the entire country and Jalen Pickett's 6.7 placed second; no one else broke 6.0.⁴

I wish my alma mater was better at basketball, but if there’s anything I’ve learned from Minnesota sports fandom as a whole, it’s that sometimes it’s better to take a step back and just be a fan of the sport.⁵

1. Wins above bubble (WAB) is a résumé metric devised by Bart Torvik. It spits out a single number meant to display how close any given team is to the NCAA Tournament bubble. If you’re at 0.0 WAB, the metric thinks you’re right on the bubble; a positive number means you’re more likely than not to be in and a negative number means the reverse.

2. Purdue, Northwestern, Michigan State, Maryland, Penn State, Wisconsin, Minnesota

3. Illinois and Iowa

4. Three players tied for third at 5.9, including Indiana’s Trayce Jackson-Davis. The B1G also finished 1-2 in this stat last year, with Iowa’s Keegan Murray notching a 7.1 and Ohio State’s E.J. Liddell notching a 6.0.

5. Or watch your other alma mater slip from AP preseason #1 to the wrong side of the bubble. Either works.